State demographer provides updated enrollment projections

Pictured: Demographer Hazel Reinhardt answers questions from the Reimagine Rdale Vision team on Feb. 25, 2025.

Hazel H. Reinhardt’s latest enrollment projections for Robbinsdale Area Schools (Rdale) offer a sobering look at the district’s future.

A former state demographer with a long history of working with Rdale, Reinhardt was contracted to analyze enrollment trends as part of the Reimagine Rdale: Vision 2030 initiative. She shared her findings at the second Vision 2030 Team meeting on Feb. 25 and later presented them to the School Board on March 3.

Her projections indicate that enrollment is unlikely to grow—and may decline significantly. Over the next decade, student enrollment is expected to drop by 7.8 to 13.3 percent from the current K-12 enrollment of 10,253. By the 2034-35 school year, Rdale’s enrollment is projected to fall between 8,886 and 9,457 students. 

Many factors have led to the projected reduction in students, which would continue a long trend of decreasing enrollment in our schools (Rdale has about 2,000 fewer students since 2014-15). Reinhardt noted the number of children choosing Rdale for kindergarten has not rebounded since the pandemic; and there has also been a sizable increase in charter school enrollment. She added, “There are no hints that it’s going to bounce back.” 

Minnesota, particularly the metropolitan area, offers its students many choices in where they go to school. Students can leave their home district for “nonpublic schools, home schools, and the public options of open enrollment, charter schools and alternative schools,” said Reinhardt’s report. “All these choices mean competition [among districts] for students.”

While more than 1,700 non-resident students chose to enroll in Rdale this year, primarily from the Minneapolis and Osseo districts, more than 4,000 students who live in Rdale opted for public school options in other districts. This is a net loss of more than 2,300 students from Rdale schools in 2024-25 alone.

Declining enrollment is not unique to Robbinsdale Area Schools, and broader trends affect it.

In the U.S. (and other countries), we aren’t having as many children as we once did, which is especially true in metropolitan areas. Consequently the population is aging, often in place, making housing stock less available for families with young children. Within Rdale’s boundaries alone, the school-age population has decreased by 1,529 (10.1 percent) in the last 10 years.

With these broader trends as context, Reinhardt pointed out that education is more of a consumer product than ever before, and the competition for each student is fierce. However, “if more nonresident students enroll . . . and/or more residents stay in the district for their education,” said Reinhardt, the number of students in Rdale will increase.

The upshot is that the Reimagine Rdale: Vision 2030 process now taking place is critically important in defining what Rdale will offer that makes us a destination district. 

Hazel Reinhardt’s presentation to the School Board on March 3, 2025, can be viewed here, beginning at the 36-minute mark. Her presentation can be viewed here.